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FCMB Group forecast dim outlook for Q1 2021, pegs profit N3.5bn

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First City Monument Bank (FCMB) Group has released its earnings forecast for the first quarter of next year, 2021.

In the Q1 2021 forecast disclosed at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), the group maintained modest expectation as some of performance metrics are on the low side compared to its Q3 2020 numbers which happen to be the last performance report.

While FCMB Group expects to post a profit before tax (PBT) of N4.2 billion in the period, it puts profit after tax (PAT) at N3.5 billion as it hopes to fulfill tax obligations estimated at N681.603 million within the three month period.

Checks by Business Metrics show that the earnings forecast, when compared with the firm’s last reported financial statement for Q3 2020, indicates a decline in some key financial metrics as follows:

  • Gross earnings is set to decrease to N44.48 billion, -7.8% Q-o-Q.
  • Profit Before Tax set to decline to N4.2 billion, –11.8% Q-o-Q.
  • Profit After Tax set to decline to N3.5 billion, -16% Q-o-Q.
  • Interest income is set to fall to N35.86 billion,-0.25% Q-o-Q.
  • Interest expense is set to decline to N12.4 billion, -6.4% Q-o-Q

Other key earning forecast figures for Q1 2021 include:

  • Net operating income projected at N32.05 billion
  • Operating expenses projected at N23.69 billion.
  • Loan losses/ write back-projected at N4.16 billion
  • Foreign Exchange earnings projected at N400.2 million

NOTE:

The modest and conservative projection by the FCMB Group may not be far from the macroeconomic headwinds both in the local and global economy due to Coronavirus effects and precarious oil market.

According to analysts, projection into the early quarter of 2021 cannot be over bloated given that, expectation of the Nigerian economy pulling out of recession by then may still be constrained by extant factors that slowed down the economy in the first place.

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