Analysts forecast inflation to print higher rate in April

Analysts forecast inflation to print higher rate in April

Analysts forecast inflation to print higher rate in April   By Olamide Onabanjo   Following release of purchasing manager index (PMI) report on Thursday which revealed heightened inflationary trends in Nigeria for the month of March, analysts have said the trend of spending more to get less is not subsiding any time soon. Latest data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that, for the 19th consecutive month, inflation rose by 84 basis points to 18.17%, driven principally by acute rises in the prices food items in the country.…

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Inflation risesfor 19th consecutive months as food prices remain the culprit

Inflation in Nigeria

Inflation rises for 19th consecutive months as food prices remain the culprit     The latest inflation data released today by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for March 2021, has shown that the headline inflation rose for the 19th consecutive month, rising by 84 basis points (bps) to 18.17%. The print is 7bps lower than an earlier projection by Cordros Capital Research, put at 18.24% year-on-year (y/y) and 27bps higher than Bloomberg median consensus estimate of 17.90% y/y. Beyond the increase from both the food (+116bps) and core (+29bps)…

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Dynamics Within the FX Market

Dynamics Within the FX Market

Dynamics Within the FX Market   By FBNQuest Research Today we turn our attention to Nigeria’s exchange-rate market. Over the past four years, the CBN’s fx reforms have assisted with improved liquidity. However, in light of the COVID-19 outbreak, there has been additional vulnerability to swings in oil prices as well as increased exit of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) which have both adversely affected exchange rate stability. Demand for fx remains high and the supply is inadequate for regular uses. The CBN’s Investors and Exporters (I&E) window rate is currently…

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2021: IMF forecasts higher GDP growth for Nigeria at 2.5%

MF forecasts higher GDP growth for Nigeria at 2.5%

2021: IMF forecasts higher GDP growth for Nigeria at 2.5%     The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected growth of 2.5 percent for Nigeria this year indicating an increase from the one per cent it had predicted for the country in January. The IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook titled: “Managing Divergent Recoveries,” also projected a 2.3 per cent economic growth for the country in 2022.  The Fund also anticipated a growth rate of 3.4 per cent for Africa this year, higher than the 0.2 per cent in…

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Sub-Saharan Africa poised for 3.4% GDP in 2021 – World Bank

Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa poised for 3.4% GDP in 2021 – World Bank The World Bank Wednesday said it expects growth in Sub-Saharan Africa this year to rise to between 2.3 and 3.4%, compared with the 2.7% it projected for the region in January. The Bank, which made the forecast in its latest Africa Pulse report titled: “The Future of Work in Africa: Emerging Trends in Digital Technology Adoption,” however, said its projection depends on the policies adopted by countries and the international community. Although the report notes that a slower spread…

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Insecurity, COVID-19 drain Nigeria’s FDI to $65m from $750m

Insecurity, COVID-19 drain Nigeria’s FPI to $65m from $750m

Insecurity, COVID-19 drain Nigeria’s FDI to $65m from $750m     Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow to Nigeria dropped to $65m as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 from $780m as of the end of third quarter. Figures obtained by our correspondent from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s economic report in the fourth quarter revealed. Part of the report read, “Foreign Direct Investment inflow declined to $0.65bn, relative to $0.78bn in the previous quarter, as both equity and reinvested earnings declined during the review period, occasioned by…

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Nigeria’s Public debt hits N32.92trn in December- NBS

FGN's Domestic Debt

Public debt hits N32.92trn in December- NBS   The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday said States and Federal debt stock stood at N32.92 trillion as at December 2020. Its data titled “Nigerian Domestic and Foreign Debt (Q4 2020)” on its website said while N12.71 trillion was external, representing 38.60 per cent of the total debt stock, N20.21 trillion, representing 61.40 per cent was domestic. NBS said: “Nigerian States and Federal Debt Stock data as of 31st December 2020 reflected that the country’s total public debt portfolio stood at N32.92trillion. “Nigeria’s…

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UK unemployment falls back to 5%

UK unemployment falls back to 5%

UK unemployment falls back to 5%   The unemployment rate fell to 5.0% in November to January, down from the last reading of 5.1% in October to December, according to latest ONS data. A total of 63.1% of job losses are amongst the under 25s meanwhile record levels of economic activity are amongst young people. Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell, comments: “A 0.1% fall in unemployment wouldn’t normally be a great cause for celebration, but a year on from the first lockdown, every little win counts. Overall unemployment…

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CBN retains lending rate at 11.5%

Lending rate

CBN retains lending rate at 11.5%   The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the Monetary Policy Rate at 11.5 per cent. The CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele, disclosed this after the committee’s two-day meeting in Abuja on Tuesday. The apex bank also retained the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Liquidity Ratio at 27.5 per cent and 30 per cent respectively. The CBN governor explained that members of the MPC were of the view that given that the exit of the country from recession…

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The Argument for No Change from the MPC

The Argument for No Change from the MPC

By FBNQuest Analysts The monetary policy committee (MPC) holds its latest meeting today and tomorrow. In the earlier days of the COVID-19 pandemic rate-setting bodies globally were in easing mode and eager to provide a monetary stimulus. Indeed the MPC cut its policy rate twice in 2020. The most common decision has since been ‘hold’ although a few in the EM universe such as Turkey have shifted to a tightening stance. A third rate cut would be a surprise this week, given the persistent rise in inflation for 18 successive…

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