COMMENTARY: Trade Deficit Widens to $9.61bn in Q1 2021; Naira Falls

Trade Deficit Widens to $9.61bn in Q1 2021; Naira Falls

Trade Deficit Widens to $9.61bn in Q1 2021; Naira Falls By FDC Limited Analysts   Nigeria has traditionally exported more than it imports i.e. it usually enjoys a balance of trade surplus. This was principally because of high oil prices and revenue. In recent times with oil price crashing, Nigeria had started running a balance of trade deficit (imports greater than exports). Trade deficit increased by 1,094.2% to $9.61bn in Q1’21 from $804.71mn in Q1’20. The recent spike in oil prices has raised hopes for a return to the trade…

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Sugar prices bearish on weak global demand for cane sugar

Nigeria targets $700m yearly from sugar backward integration

By FDC Analysts   Brent fell by 4.54% to $63.03pb after a rally in the last few days. Traders are concerned about possible output increases by OPEC+ or rogue members. The meeting of Thursday will most likely leave output unchanged. The decline in Brent should help assuage fears of a rumored N200 per liter PMS price potential if the surge in crude prices continues. Nigeria’s main cocoa crop has received a major boost from a prolonged harvest in Ondo state (Nigeria’s largest producer) as the harvest season winds down. Extra…

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Recession over as Nigerian economy surprisingly records positive growth of 0.11% in Q4 2020

By Analysts at Financial Derivative Company The just released GDP growth numbers affirm the fact that the Nigerian economy is on its recovery path. Contrary to market expectations, the Nigerian economy recorded positive growth of 0.11% (year-on-year) in Q4’20 after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This puts full year growth for 2020 at -1.92% and implies that the recession is over. The surprise recovery was driven by the resumption in most business activities. The number of sectors that expanded increased from 14 in Q2 to 21 in Q3 and…

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FDC analysts forecast 14% inflation rate for September

inflation

Inflation will maintain its upward trajectory and increase to 14 per cent for the month of September, from the 13.22 per cent recorded in August, Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) has predicted. The Chief Executive Officer, FDC, Mr. Bismarck Rewane, who made the forecast at the Lagos Business School (LBS) Executive   Breakfast Session, presentation for October 2020, obtained by Business Metrics on Sunday, said he also expected inflation to further rise to 15 per cent in October, adding that inflation in 2020 could rise beyond the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN)…

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Headline Inflation to Increase to 12.55%, Monthly Inflation to Dip in June 2020

inflation

Analysis by FDC Our market survey points towards a 0.15% increase in the headline inflation to 12.55% in June from 12.40% in May. This will be the 10th consecutive monthly increase and the highest rate in over 2 years. The main inflation driver is the supply disruptions caused by the planting season and the partial lockdown of the economy. Its impact was exacerbated by the exchange rate adjustments and higher logistics cost. The currency has been devalued twice in the last four months. The resulting impact will be a spike…

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