Centre Spotlights Catalysts for Nigeria’s Economic Expansion in 2026

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has highlight strategies and action points for Nigeria to transition from macroeconomic stabilisation in 2025 to stronger economic growth in 2026.

In its review of the Nigerian economy and outlook for 2026, the Centre said the country stands a chance to post better performance next year if its ongoing reform momentum is sustained to ensure continuous ease in inflation and maintain traction in non-oil economy.

The Centre projected GDP growth of between 4.0 and 4.5 percent next year, driven largely by services and improving domestic demand.

The organisation described the outlook as one of cautious optimism, following what it said was a turning point in 2025 marked by exchange rate stability and sharply lower inflation.

According to the report, moderating inflation is central to unlocking growth. Inflation slowed from 24.48 percent in January 2025 to about 14.45 percent by November, a trend the Centre said should strengthen household purchasing power and create room for gradual monetary easing.

It noted that lower inflation could “strengthen domestic demand and create room for gradual monetary easing, potentially lowering interest rates and stimulating private investment”.

The Centre said the services sector is expected to remain the main growth engine in 2026, riding on its recent momentous performance. By the third quarter of 2025, services accounted for about 53 percent of GDP, far outweighing oil’s 3.44 percent contribution.

The CPPE said continued expansion in telecommunications, financial services, construction, real estate and trade would be critical to sustaining momentum as Nigeria deepens its structural shift away from oil dependence.

Non-oil activities already dominate the economy, contributing 96.56 percent of GDP and growing by 3.91 percent in 2025.

The report said this trend positions Nigeria to drive growth even amid oil price and production volatility, provided structural constraints such as power deficits and logistics costs are gradually addressed.

While noting that capital markets could also play a supportive role in 2026, the Centre said prospects were positive, citing the potential listing of the Dangote Refinery as a development that could deepen market liquidity and attract both domestic and foreign portfolio inflows.

It added that “policy credibility remains strong, reinforcing investor confidence and capital inflows”.

Writing in the report, the CPPE Chief Executive Officer, Muda Yusuf, said the economy had moved past the most disruptive phase of reforms and was now positioned for expansion.

“Overall, 2025 laid a solid foundation of macroeconomic stability,” he said, adding that the outlook for 2026 was “reassuring, with expectations of stronger growth, easing inflation, improving investor confidence and a gradual shift toward more inclusive expansion”.

However, the CPPE cautioned that realising the projected growth will depend on managing persistent risks, including insecurity, high energy and logistics costs and heavy debt service obligations.

Debt service is estimated at over N15 trillion in the 2026 appropriation, about half of projected revenue, continuing to constrain fiscal space.

Despite these challenges, the organisation said Nigeria has a clear pathway to drive growth in 2026 if reforms are sustained and security challenges are effectively addressed.

It concluded that 2026 could mark “the beginning of a more robust growth phase with tangible improvements in living standards”.