Agriculture, Telecoms Leading Drivers of Nigeria’s 3.89% Q1 2026 GDP Growth

By Àkànní Olúwaségún Michael

Nigeria’s economy recorded a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, marking an improvement over the 3.13% growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, according to fresh data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices rose to N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026, up from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a nominal year-on-year growth of 17.79%. At an exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar, this is approximately $79.14 billion.

The World Bank, in its April 2026 Africa’s Pulse report, revised Nigeria’s growth forecast downward, citing rising global uncertainties and volatility in energy markets. The Washington-based lender projected that Africa’s largest economy would grow by 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027, down from its earlier forecast of 4.4 per cent for both years. The latest Q1 print of 3.89 per cent falls short of that full-year projection.

Sectoral Breakdown

Real growth rates (year-on-year). Source: NBS Q1 2026 GDP Report

The agriculture sector recorded a growth rate of 3.15% in Q1 2026, a significant rise from the 0.07% recorded in the same quarter of 2025, emerging as the strongest performer in the period under review.

The industry sector expanded by 3.50%, slightly above the 3.42% growth recorded in Q1 2025. Construction grew strongly by 6.38% in real terms, while manufacturing posted nominal growth of 10.22%.

The services sector maintained its dominance, contributing 57.73 per cent to aggregate GDP in Q1 2026, up from 57.50 per cent a year earlier. Growth in the sector was sustained by telecommunications, financial services, and trade activity.

The NBS noted that the services sector recorded a growth of 4.31 per cent in Q1 2026, marginally below the 4.33 per cent posted in the same quarter of 2025, but remained the single largest contributor to economic output.

Nigeria recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2026, lower than the 1.62 mbpd recorded in Q1 2025. Despite lower output, the oil sector grew by 2.57% in real terms, higher than the 1.87% recorded in Q1 2025, and contributed 3.92% to total real GDP, slightly below the 3.97% recorded a year earlier.

What This Means

The Q1 2026 GDP figure is also slightly lower than Q4 2025, with the economy slowing by 0.10% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This signals that while the year-on-year trajectory is positive, sustaining momentum within the year remains a challenge.

The broad-based improvement across agriculture, industry, and services points to a more resilient economic foundation, though the persistent contraction in the power sector and declining oil output remain key risks to the growth outlook for the rest of 2026.