Tinubu Claims Economic Turnaround In Democracy Day Address

By Àkànní Olúwaségún Michael

Three years into his presidency, Bola Tinubu on Friday declared that Nigeria’s economy is turning the corner.

He cited rising federation revenues, growing investor confidence, increased domestic refining capacity, and a 21 per cent growth in non-oil exports as proof that his administration’s reforms are working.

Speaking at the 2026 Democracy Day ceremony, Tinubu defended the economic decisions taken since May 2023, framing the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange rate as acts of necessity rather than political convenience.

“The reforms we are undertaking were not chosen for ease, but for necessity,” he said. “Three years ago, our public finances were under severe strain, investment was discouraged, and economic uncertainty threatened our future. We chose to act, embracing reforms to advance Nigeria’s economic freedom.”

The President said federation revenues have risen since the reforms, providing states and local governments with more resources for infrastructure, education, healthcare, and security.

He added that fiscal transparency has improved and that capital is flowing into agriculture, energy, manufacturing, technology, mining, transportation, and the creative industries.

On energy, the President said increased domestic refining capacity is strengthening energy security and reducing Nigeria’s reliance on imported petroleum products.

The latest trade data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) offer some support for that position. Nigeria imported N1.91 trillion worth of crude oil in the first quarter of 2026, accounting for 14 per cent of the total import bill, a compositional shift from the years when refined petroleum products dominated the country’s import basket and drained far more foreign exchange.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the world’s largest single-train refinery with a processing capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, received less than 27 per cent of the crude it needed from domestic sources between October 2025 and March 2026, forcing it to source feedstock from Brazil, the United States, and Algeria at significant foreign exchange cost.

On electricity, the President acknowledged inheriting a sector in dysfunction, describing it as one that “generated less than the 13,500 megawatts installed capacity, transmitted less than it generated, distributed less than it transmitted, and collected revenue far below what it needed to sustain itself.”

To address the crisis, Tinubu said he signed the Electricity Act to decentralise the power sector and grant states authority to generate, transmit, and distribute power.

He also disclosed that a Presidential Power Sector Task Force has been authorised to raise a N4 trillion bond to settle verified legacy debts, and that the Rural Electrification Agency, backed by the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB), has deployed off-grid and mini-grid power to underserved communities, universities, markets, and hospitals.

What the President did not provide was a target or a timeline for closing the generation gap that has persisted across his three years in office.

In agriculture, Tinubu announced that the National Agricultural Development Fund is deploying 10,000 tractors over five years and that over 1,000 small businesses have been certified for export.

He said non-oil exports grew by 21 per cent last year, though the sector still accounts for just 15 per cent of Nigeria’s total export earnings, a share that has remained broadly flat.

On local government autonomy, the President argued that effective grassroots governance is critical to delivering development and expanding economic opportunities. “My administration has sought financial autonomy for our 774 local councils,” he said, linking the push to his broader democratic agenda.

The President acknowledged that the gains recorded so far have not sufficiently reached ordinary Nigerians.

“Yet, many Nigerians still face economic hardship,” he said. “We remain focused on reducing inflation, expanding food production, creating jobs, improving living standards, rebuilding confidence in our economy, and creating conditions for sustainable prosperity.”

Tinubu said his administration’s next phase would focus on converting the stability achieved through reforms into tangible growth at the household level.

“We are moving from uncertainty to stability,” he said. “The next phase is about accelerating growth and ensuring the benefits are felt in every home, every community, and every region.”

As Nigeria marked 27 years of uninterrupted democratic rule, the President framed the country’s present challenge in terms that were equal parts historical and economic.

“The heroes of June 12 secured political freedom. Our challenge is to secure economic freedom,” he said.

He closed with a line that sets the standard against which his remaining time in office will be measured.

“We believe that democracy must be felt in the pocket,” Tinubu said.