Nigeria’s fast-emerging Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) market may face a major shakeout, with industry stakeholders warning that up to half of the 43 newly licensed operators could fold within five years unless they innovate and adapt to local realities.
The caution was raised at the sixth edition of the Telecoms Sector Sustainability Forum, where stakeholders highlighted the gap between licence issuance and actual service rollout.
Although the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has granted 43 MVNO licences, only a handful of operators have fully launched services.
Chidi Ajuzie, Director at USK Mobile, said licensing alone does not guarantee success. “Too many people think that once you get a licence, the money will start rolling in. Without infrastructure and innovation, many MVNOs will die out quickly,” he warned.
Ajuzie noted that smaller operators, especially those in lower licence tiers, face severe financial strain because they are expected to build parts of their own infrastructure. However, he added that this challenge could also inspire creative business models that may set winners apart.
Other participants advised MVNOs against competing directly with dominant Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). Instead, they urged them to identify niche markets—citing global examples such as South Africa and India, where MVNOs thrive by targeting youth, migrant workers, and fintech-driven services.
Tony Emoekpere, President of the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), explained that the NCC introduced multiple MVNO licence categories to liberalise the market and expand consumer choice. But sustainability, he cautioned, will only be possible if operators differentiate themselves in a sector already saturated with MNO-driven internet, enterprise, and fintech services.
He cited Kenya’s M-Pesa as a model of telecom-enabled financial innovation. For Nigeria, he suggested opportunities lie in underserved areas, such as rural communities excluded from reliable telecom and financial services. “Designing a low-data package for POS machines in rural areas could be a game-changer. These terminals do not need broadband; a simple 2G network can handle them,” he said.
Adding his perspective, Olusola Teniola, Director at IPNX, warned against copying European and American MVNO templates without tailoring strategies to Nigeria’s realities. “The biggest market is not the flashy smartphone users in Lagos. The biggest market is at the bottom of the pyramid,” he said, also warning that excessive reliance on foreign-owned operators could trigger capital flight and limit local innovation.
As Nigeria’s MVNO landscape evolves, stakeholders agreed that only operators that carve out niches, adapt to local market conditions, and innovate beyond traditional telecom services stand a chance of survival over the next five years.
