Barring further unforeseen disruptions to the global economy, the global aviation sector is warming up to post its highest ever revenue, estimated at $979 billion, in 2025.
The epoch-making operating year is also expected to usher in historic passenger and cargo traffics as airlines are projected to airlift up to 4.99 billion travellers and 69 million tonnes of cargo volumes.
These are contained in the updated 2025 airline industry financial outlook just released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), showing improved profitability over 2024 and resilience in the face of global economic and political shifts.
According to IATA, the net profits of operators in the industry is pegged at $36 billion, higher than $32.4 billion earned in 2024, but slightly down on the previously projected $36.6 billion before the trade war that has so far exerted negative impact on the global economy.
As net profit margin is expected to rise to 3.7%, improving from the 3.4% earned in 2024, aviation investors are also poised for better return on invested capital (RoI), rising to 6.7% from 6.6% earned in 2024.
Speaking on the new forecast, the Director General of IATA, Willie Walsh, said while the first half of 2025 has brought significant uncertainties to global markets, indications are rife that many measures, including net profits, are signalling a turnaround in the second half of the tear.
According to him, “The biggest positive driver is the price of jet fuel which has fallen 13% compared with 2024 and 1% below previous estimates. Moreover, we anticipate airlines flying more people and more cargo in 2025 than they did in 2024, even if previous demand projections have been dented by trade tensions and falls in consumer confidence.
“The result is an improvement of net margins from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025. That’s still about half the average profitability across all industries. But considering the headwinds, it’s a strong result that demonstrates the resilience that airlines have worked hard to fortify.”
To put the figures in perspective, the IATA boss explained that while the forecast shows large industry-wide aggregate figures, further breakdown indicates the sector is still not at its best.
He said: “The Earning a $36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment. It’s still a thin buffer and any new tax, increase in airport or navigation charge, demand shock or costly regulation will quickly put the industry’s resilience to the test.”
He cautioned that policymakers who rely on airlines as the core of a value chain that employs 86.5 million people and supports 3.9% of global economic activity, must keep this clearly in focus.
