Africa Aviation Eyes Gains from Historic $1tn Global Airline Revenue Boom

Africa’s aviation sector is entering 2026 on a rare upswing, riding a global airline boom that is set to push industry revenues beyond $1 trillion for the first time, even as capacity shortages and fragile margins continue to define the business worldwide.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global airlines are forecast to post a record net profit of $41 billion in 2026, supported by resilient passenger demand and record-high aircraft utilisation.

For Africa, the outlook is notably stronger than the global average, with passenger traffic projected to grow by 7.4 per cent year-on-year, placing the continent among the fastest-growing aviation markets globally.

“Resilient traffic growth, together with stable yields should allow the industry to top the USD 1 trillion revenues for the first time,” IATA said in its December 2025 Global Outlook, adding that profitability is being sustained despite persistent supply-side constraints.

The growth trajectory has direct implications for Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy and one of its most populous aviation markets.

As airlines struggle with limited aircraft availability and labour shortages globally, African carriers are benefiting from demand that continues to outpace capacity, keeping load factors high and supporting yields.

IATA projects global passenger load factors to average 83.8 per cent in 2026, a historic peak driven largely by tight capacity rather than excess demand.

“Supply constraints continue to keep load factors at record highs,” the report noted, a dynamic that is particularly evident across African routes where aircraft shortages remain acute.

Beyond passenger travel, Africa stands to gain from the renewed strategic importance of air transport in global trade.

Air cargo, which IATA describes as a “critical enabler of rapid adaptation” during recent tariff shocks, is expected to grow by 2.6 per cent globally in 2026, with Africa projected to record growth of around 3 per cent, supported by time-sensitive exports and expanding e-commerce links.

For Nigeria, where trade logistics, pharmaceuticals, perishables and high-value goods increasingly rely on air freight, the resilience of cargo aviation offers a buffer against broader global trade slowdown.

IATA observed that “in times of uncertainty, when speed matters most, air freight remains the preferred option,” underscoring its role in economies with infrastructure gaps.

However, the report also highlights structural risks that could constrain Africa’s long-term aviation gains.

Chief among them, IATA observes, is sustainability, while explaining that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is projected to account for less than 1 per cent of global fuel consumption in 2026, a shortfall that threatens airlines’ climate commitments and raises costs.

Without coordinated policy support, IATA warns that aviation’s energy transition may stall.

“This unfortunately extends to the lack of harmonisation between CORSIA and a multitude of other regional and national initiatives that cause fragmentation, raise costs, and curtail actual emissions reductions,” the association said.

For Africa — and Nigeria in particular — the stakes are high. Air transport already supports millions of jobs on the continent and acts as a multiplier for tourism, trade and investment. As global aviation edges towards a trillion-dollar revenue era, the challenge for African policymakers will be to ensure that growth translates into capacity expansion, lower operating costs and sustainable infrastructure, rather than missed opportunity.