At 4.4%, Nigeria’s Economy to Outpace Global Growth Average in 2026 – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 4.4 per cent in 2026, up from an estimated 4.2 per cent in 2025, before moderating slightly to 4.1 per cent in 2027.

According to the January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update by IMF, this performance places Nigeria above the projected global growth rate of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and well ahead of growth expectations for advanced economies, which are forecast to grow at 1.8 per cent.

The report shows that sub-Saharan Africa as a whole is expected to accelerate from 4.4 per cent growth in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026 and 2027, driven by macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts in key economies, including Nigeria.

This trajectory contrasts sharply with the outlook for advanced economies, where growth remains constrained by structural headwinds, high debt levels and fading post pandemic momentum.

Globally, the IMF projects that economic growth will remain steady at 3.3 per cent in 2026 and ease slightly to 3.2 per cent in 2027, supported by accommodative financial conditions, easing inflation and strong investment in technology, particularly artificial intelligence.

However, this resilience masks significant divergence across regions, with growth increasingly concentrated in a narrow set of sectors and countries.

While advanced economies such as the United States are expected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2026 and the euro area by 1.3 per cent, Nigeria’s projected growth places it closer to the performance of faster growing emerging markets.

India, for example, is forecast to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2026, while China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.5 per cent as structural constraints weigh on its economy.

The IMF notes that Nigeria’s growth outlook reflects broader momentum across emerging market and developing economies, which are projected to expand at just above 4 per cent in 2026 and 2027.

These economies continue to benefit from easing inflation, stabilising currencies and improved access to global financial markets amid accommodative global financial conditions.

Inflation dynamics also provide important context for Nigeria’s outlook. The IMF expects global headline inflation to decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, with inflation in emerging and developing economies easing to 4.8 per cent.

This disinflationary trend is underpinned by lower energy prices and softening global demand, creating a more supportive environment for growth across Africa.

However, the Fund warns that the global environment remains fragile, with risks tilted to the downside. Trade tensions, geopolitical shocks and a potential reassessment of productivity gains linked to artificial intelligence could disrupt capital flows and tighten financial conditions.

Such shocks could have spillover effects on emerging economies, including Nigeria, through trade channels, commodity prices and global financial markets.

Despite these risks, sub-Saharan Africa stands out as one of the few regions where growth is expected to strengthen over the medium term.

The IMF attributes this to improving macroeconomic management, reform momentum and the gradual fading of earlier shocks. Nigeria’s projected growth places it ahead of South Africa, which is forecast to expand by 1.4 per cent in 2026, highlighting Nigeria’s relative economic momentum within the region.

The IMF cautions that sustaining this growth will require continued policy discipline, restoration of fiscal buffers and structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity and diversification.

It emphasises that countries like Nigeria must leverage the current window of relative global stability to strengthen resilience, reduce policy uncertainty and broaden the sources of growth beyond a narrow base.

As the global economy navigates a period of steady but uneven expansion, Nigeria’s outlook underscores Africa’s growing importance in driving global growth.

The IMF’s projections suggest that while advanced economies grapple with slowing momentum, Nigeria and its regional peers are positioned to play a more prominent role in the global economic landscape, provided reform efforts are sustained and external risks are effectively managed.