Nigeria’s crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in August, dropping by 5,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.50 million bpd, according to data from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The August figure, based on direct communication from Nigeria, compares with 1.505 million bpd in July and 1.555 million bpd in June.
This means crude output declined by 55,000 bpd between June and August, with the bulk of the reduction occurring in July when production fell by 50,000 bpd month-on-month.
The latest output is also exactly in line with Nigeria’s OPEC crude production quota of 1.50 million bpd.
OPEC’s direct communication data shows that Nigeria’s crude production increased to 1.555 million bpd in June before falling to 1.505 million bpd in July and 1.50 million bpd in August.
The July decline represented a 50,000 bpd reduction, while the latest August figure was another 5,000 bpd lower.
On a two-month basis, production therefore fell by about 3.5 per cent from the 1.555 million bpd recorded in June to 1.50 million bpd in August.
The figures exclude condensates, which are not included in OPEC’s crude production quota.
Nigeria’s upstream regulator, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), had earlier reported that the country produced 1.505 million bpd of crude and 0.17 million bpd of condensates in July, bringing combined crude and condensate production to 1.67 million bpd.
OPEC’s secondary-source estimates present a different picture of Nigeria’s August production.
While direct communication from Nigeria put August crude output at 1.50 million bpd, OPEC’s secondary sources estimated production at 1.57 million bpd.
The secondary-source estimate was higher than the 1.55 million bpd recorded for July, indicating an increase of about 20,000 bpd month-on-month.
This creates a 70,000 bpd difference between OPEC’s direct-communication figure and its secondary-source estimate for August.
The divergence is not new. In July, OPEC’s direct communication data put Nigeria’s crude output at 1.505 million bpd, while secondary sources estimated it at about 1.54 million bpd.
Nigeria’s latest production level also represents a reversal from the stronger output recorded earlier in the year.
NUPRC data showed crude and condensate production rising from 1.483 million bpd in February to 1.546 million bpd in March, 1.663 million bpd in April, 1.70 million bpd in May and 1.735 million bpd in June.
In strict crude terms, June production reached about 1.56 million bpd, which NUPRC described as a 74-month high and equivalent to 104 per cent of Nigeria’s 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota
By July, however, combined crude and condensate production had fallen to 1.67 million bpd from 1.735 million bpd in June.
NUPRC said July’s combined production ranged between a daily low of 1.57 million bpd and a peak of 1.78 million bpd. It attributed the decline to operational challenges at the Erha and Akpo fields.
The latest decline comes as Nigeria continues to rely heavily on crude oil and gas exports for foreign exchange earnings and government revenue.
With Brent crude recently rising above $100 per barrel amid renewed supply concerns, any sustained increase in Nigerian production could provide additional export earnings.
