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IMF downgrades Nigeria’s economic outlook, projects 4.3% contraction in 2020



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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy will contract by 4.3 per cent in 2020.

It disclosed this in its World Economic Outlook report for October 2020 which was released on Tuesday.

The IMF had earlier in April predicted a 3.4 per cent contraction of the economy. It also predicted 5.4 per cent contraction in June.

It however projected that the economy would recover by 1.7 per cent in 2021.

According to the report, global growth was projected to contract by 4.4 per cent in 2020, a less severe contraction than forecast in the June 2020 World Economic Outlook Update.

The revision reflected better-than anticipated second quarter Gross Domestic Product outturns, mostly in advanced economies, where activity began to improve sooner than expected after lockdowns were scaled back in May and June, as well as indicators of a stronger recovery in the third quarter.

It stated, “Global growth is projected at 5.2 per cent in 2021, a little lower than in the June 2020 WEO Update, reflecting the more moderate downturn projected for 2020 and consistent with expectations of persistent social distancing.

“Following the contraction in 2020 and recovery in 2021, the level of global GDP in 2021 is expected to be a modest 0.6 per cent above that of 2019.

“The growth projections imply wide negative output gaps and elevated unemployment rates this year and in 2021 across both advanced and emerging market economies.

“After the rebound in 2021, global growth is expected to gradually slow to about 3.5 per cent into the medium term.”

The IMF said this implied only limited progress toward catching up to the path of economic activity for 2020–25 projected before the pandemic for both advanced and emerging market and developing economies.

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