CPPE Downplays Impact of New US Tariffs on Nigeria, Says Over 80% of Exports Exempt

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has dismissed concerns over the United States’ newly introduced 12.5 per cent tariff on Nigerian imports, saying the measure is unlikely to have any significant impact on the country’s economy because the bulk of Nigeria’s exports to the US are not affected.

In a policy brief released on Sunday, the CPPE said the new tariff regime is a continuation of the reciprocal trade policy pursued by the Donald Trump administration, although now implemented under a different legal framework.

“The new tariff regime represents a continuation of the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff policy, albeit under a different legal framework,” the organisation said, noting that the measures now appear to have been introduced under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act after earlier reciprocal tariffs were invalidated by the courts.

According to the CPPE, while the legal basis has changed, Washington’s objective remains unchanged.

“Although the legal foundation has changed, the underlying policy objective remains essentially the same: protecting U.S. domestic industries, strengthening American manufacturing competitiveness and advancing broader U.S. trade and economic interests,” it stated.

The organisation, however, argued that Nigeria’s exposure to the tariffs is limited because petroleum products dominate the country’s exports to the United States.

“The first reason is that Nigeria’s exports to the United States are heavily concentrated in crude oil, liquefied natural gas and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80% of Nigeria’s merchandise exports to the U.S. These products have been exempted from the tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected,” the policy brief said.

The CPPE also pointed out that the United States is only Nigeria’s fifth-largest export destination.

Citing first-quarter 2026 merchandise trade data, it noted that total exports stood at approximately ₦21.6 trillion, with the United States accounting for just 5.56 per cent. India ranked first with 13.09 per cent, followed by France (9.29 per cent), the Netherlands (9.22 per cent) and Spain (7.68 per cent).

While acknowledging that some non-oil exporters, particularly those in agriculture and manufacturing, could face reduced competitiveness in the American market, the CPPE maintained that the broader economic consequences would be limited.

“While some non-oil exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing, may experience reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market, the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance is expected to be modest,” it said, adding that the issue is “essentially a question of materiality.”

Beyond the immediate tariff impact, the organisation said the development reflects a more significant shift in global trade policy.

“It reinforces the trend towards greater protectionism, industrial policy and strategic use of trade instruments to advance domestic economic objectives,” the CPPE said, stressing that the evolving environment requires “a stronger emphasis on export diversification, enhanced manufacturing competitiveness, increased domestic value addition and deeper regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).”

The think tank also called on the Federal Government to strengthen labour standards, improve supply chain transparency and engage proactively with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to minimise any adverse effects on Nigerian exporters.

Overall, the CPPE cautioned against overstating the economic implications of the new tariff regime.

“While the new U.S. tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated. The greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment,” the organisation concluded.