The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s economic growth to rise to 4.3 per cent in 2027, from 4.2 per cent in 2026, as inflation moderates, although households remain under pressure from the rising cost of essential goods.
In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook, the Fund projected Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 4.0 per cent in 2025, 4.2 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027.
The IMF also expects average consumer price inflation to decline from 23.0 per cent in 2025 to 15.6 per cent in 2026 and 14.7 per cent in 2027, signalling a gradual easing of price pressures.
Despite the improved outlook, the Fund warned that higher prices of essential goods could worsen poverty and food insecurity, highlighting the gap between improving macroeconomic indicators and household welfare.
Deniz Igan, Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, said during the Fund’s World Economic Outlook briefing in Bangkok, Thailand, that Nigeria’s economy had remained resilient, but poverty levels remained high and many households continued to face difficulties.
Igan said policymakers needed to balance immediate household needs, particularly food and energy security, with the need to preserve medium-term fiscal stability.
She advocated targeted and temporary income support for vulnerable households, including cash transfers, to cushion the impact of elevated living costs without undermining fiscal sustainability.
The Fund also called for improvements in public spending efficiency and revenue collection to support the delivery of economic relief.
Nigeria’s growth outlook is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects. However, the IMF cautioned that these gains might not automatically translate into improved living standards, particularly if food and energy costs remain elevated.
The IMF projected economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa at 4.5 per cent in both 2026 and 2027, while noting that the regional outlook masks significant differences among individual economies.
It attributed these differences to variations in policy implementation, fiscal capacity, exposure to commodity price fluctuations, climate shocks and access to external financing.
The Fund also warned that declining official development assistance and limited participation in the global artificial intelligence-driven investment boom could constrain growth prospects across parts of the region.
The projections come amid global uncertainty driven by higher energy and commodity prices, partly linked to the conflict in the Middle East, alongside investment and demand associated with artificial intelligence.
Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of Research, said rising energy and commodity prices were weighing on economic activity while increasing inflationary pressures.
The Fund projected growth in emerging markets and developing economies to slow from 4.5 per cent in 2025 to 3.7 per cent in 2026 before recovering to 4.4 per cent in 2027.
