China’s crude oil surplus shrank from 930,000 barrels daily In September to 500,000 bpd in October, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported today, based on data calculations.
However, the significant decline was nothing to write home about, Russell said, noting that crude oil imports and refinery run rates during last month also fell.
Last month, China imported a total of 10.53 million barrels per day of crude oil, per data from the General Administration of Customs cited by Reuters earlier this month.
That’s 9% lower compared to October 2023 and 2% below the import level of 11.07 million bpd in September 2024.
Between January and October, China’s crude oil exports averaged 10.76 million bpd, which is down by 3.4% compared to the same period last year, according to Chinese customs data.
The figures have served to further cement bearish sentiment on oil markets, with Chinese oil demand cited on a daily basis as reason for the sentiment and for weak oil prices.
Chinese oil production, on the other hand, rose on October, by 2.5% on the year to 4.04 million barrels daily.
Based on this production number and on the average import rate for October, Russell calculates the oil available to refiners at 14.57 million barrels daily.
That was down from 15.22 million barrels daily in September. Actual refinery throughput during the month, however, came in at 14.02 million barrels daily, the calculations also showed.
Concerns about oil demand growth in China have weighed on oil prices for most of the second half of the year, when actual consumption data started rolling in and Chinese demand strength may have been overestimated.
The reasons for the overestimation appear to be expectations of much stronger growth of the Chinese economy than realistically possible. On the flip side, EV sales are frequently cited as a key driver of demand destruction in the world’s top oil importer.
