The consumer price index (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 15.63 percent year-on-year in December 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed.
According the CPI report just released by the government agency, the latest figures indicate a termination of the relief that has been enjoyed in the last eight consecutive months during which inflation rate subsided.
The December inflation rate, according to the NBS, is 0.13 percent points lower than the rate recorded in December 2020 (15.75) percent. However, it shows deceleration when compared to the corresponding period of 2020 .
Increases were recorded in all Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the Headline index.
Food Price, a regular culprit
Meanwhile, just as in most of past inflation reports, rising costs of food in the country contributed to the annual inflation rate.
According to the latest figure, the composite food sub-index rose by 17.37 percent in December 2021 down by 2.19 percent points when compared to 19.56 percent in December 2020.
This rise in the food sub-index was caused by increases in prices of Bread and cereals, Food product such as Meat, Fish, Potatoes, yam and other tuber, Soft drinks and fruit.
On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 2.19 percent in December 2021, up by 1.12 percent points from 1.07 percent recorded in November 2021.
Back to the Headline Index
On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.82 percent in December 2021, this is 0.74 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in November 2021 (1.08) percent.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending December 2021 increased by 16.95 percent from 16.98 percent over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period recorded in November 2021 down by 0.03 percent points.
The data further showed that urban inflation rate increased by 16.17 percent (year-on-year) in December 2021 from 16.33 percent recorded in December 2020, while the rural inflation rate increased by 15.11 percent in December 2021 from 15.20 percent in December 2020.
On a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.87 percent in December 2021, up by 0.75 the rate recorded in November 2021 (1.12) percent, while the rural index also rose by 1.77 percent in December 2021, up by 0.73 the rate that was recorded in November 2021 (1.04) percent.
The twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 17.52 percent in December 2021.
This is lower than the rate reported in November 17.55 (percent), while the corresponding twelvemonth (month-on-month) average percentage change for rural index inflation rate in December 2021 stood at 16.40 percent from 16.42 percent in November 2021.
Expectations
Earlier, Director, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Hassan Mahmud, at the virtual Mid-Year Economic Review and Outlook, 2021, organised by the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria’s Centre for Financial Studies, in collaboration with B. Adedipe Associates, had predicted that the country’s inflation rate would drop to a single digit in 2022.
Mahmud said that there were positive sides to Nigeria’s economic growth, despite uncertainties in the domestic and global economy.
He said that if policy challenges with exchange rates, insecurity, among others, were addressed effectively, the country would start seeing some positive projections in 2021 and the beginning of 2022.
“We will also see the inflation number coming down less than 13 per cent by the end of 2021 and further down to single-digit by 2022 or the middle of 2022.” Mahmud, said.
Confirming this projection, Statistician-General (SG), Dr Simon Harry, said that the decline was because of the conscious implementation of the Sustainable Developments Goals (SDGs) by the government.
To arrive at the inflation rate, over 10,534 informants from different parts of the country are deployed and the price index of over 740 goods and services are compiled.
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The CPI had started its deceleration move last April when it slowed to 18:12 per cent from 18:17 per cent in March.
Again in May, inflation came down to 17.93 per cent from April’s 18:12 per cent from and sustained the downward movement by writing 17:75 in June.
Similarly, while July recorded a lowly 17:38 per cent, August also slipped to 17:01 per cent. The declining performance was recorded also in September (16:83 per cent), October (15:99 per cent) and November (15:40 per cent).
