President Bola Tinubu has said the World Bank’s latest Nigeria Development Update confirms that his administration’s economic reforms are delivering results, citing stronger economic growth, increased government revenue and improved external reserves.
The President’s position follows the World Bank’s October 2026 report, which examined the impact of increased federation revenue on state government spending and Nigeria’s broader economic performance.
According to figures cited by the Presidency, Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 3.9 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025.
The World Bank projects average economic growth of at least 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028.
In a statement issued on Sunday by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Tinubu attributed the improvement to reforms introduced since 2023, including petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange market unification and measures to strengthen fiscal discipline.
“These findings confirm that the difficult but necessary decisions to remove the petrol subsidy, unify the foreign exchange market and strengthen fiscal discipline have raised revenues, stabilised the economy and created fiscal space for every tier of government to invest in its people,” the President said.
The report also indicated that Nigeria’s poverty rate had stabilised for the first time since 2019. The World Bank expects poverty to decline gradually as economic growth outpaces population growth.
On inflation, the report showed that the rate fell from 27.6 per cent in January 2025 to 15.2 per cent in December 2025. However, higher global fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East have slowed the decline, with inflation projected to ease to about 12 per cent by 2028.
Nigeria’s external position also improved, with the current account surplus rising to US$12 billion, equivalent to 7 per cent of gross domestic product, in the first half of 2026, from US$8.6 billion a year earlier.
Gross external reserves increased from US$45.5 billion at the end of 2025 to US$53.8 billion at the end of August 2026, according to the figures cited by the Presidency.
The World Bank report further highlighted the impact of increased federation revenue on state government finances.
Federation revenue rose by 69 per cent in real terms between 2023 and 2025, with state governments emerging as the largest beneficiaries.
The additional resources supported a 151 per cent increase in state capital spending in real terms over the period, with much of the expenditure directed towards roads and other transport infrastructure, agriculture, energy and housing.
Twenty-nine of 33 states shifted their spending towards economic infrastructure, while real social spending per person increased in all but one state, according to the Presidency’s summary of the report.
Internally generated revenue also grew in real terms in 31 of 35 states, while 21 states reduced their debt-to-GDP ratios between 2021 and 2025.
Nigeria’s overall public debt is projected to decline from 40 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 38.1 per cent in 2026, the statement added.
Despite the improvements, Tinubu acknowledged that the economic gains had yet to fully translate into better living conditions for households, particularly through lower food prices and more employment opportunities for young Nigerians.
“The dividends of reform are becoming visible. But more work remains to ensure they fully translate into better living standards for every household, starting with lower food prices and decent jobs for our young people,” he said.
The President said the administration would expand targeted cash transfers, accelerate the deployment of compressed natural gas, improve agricultural productivity and increase access to affordable healthcare and quality education.
He also urged state governments to manage their increased revenues prudently and prioritise projects that improve living standards, healthcare and education.