Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May, extending the country’s disinflation trend but highlighting persistent pressure on household food costs that could influence the Central Bank of Nigeria’s next monetary policy decision.
Data released on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that while annual inflation remained broadly stable, consumer prices continued to rise on a monthly basis, underscoring the uneven nature of the country’s inflation recovery.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the general price level, increased to 143.0 points in June from 140.7 points in May.
On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation moderated to 1.66 per cent, compared with 1.75 per cent recorded in May, indicating that the pace of price increases slowed slightly during the month.
However, food prices continued to exert significant pressure on consumers.
Although annual food inflation moderated to 17.52 per cent from 25.41 per cent recorded in June 2025, reflecting favourable base effects, monthly food inflation accelerated to 3.75 per cent, up from 2.98 per cent in May.
The increase was driven largely by higher prices of staple food items, including fresh tomatoes, fresh pepper, crayfish, dried green peas, yam flour, water yam, beef, bananas, cassava flour, cowpeas, garri, Irish potatoes and yam tubers.
The average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending June 2026 stood at 16.42 per cent, significantly lower than the 31.93 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, also continued to moderate.
The NBS reported that annual core inflation declined to 15.92 per cent in June from 25.41 per cent in the corresponding period of last year, while monthly core inflation eased to 1.66 per cent, compared with 1.94 per cent in May.
The average annual core inflation rate for the twelve months ending June 2026 slowed to 18.82 per cent, down from 26.88 per cent recorded a year earlier.
The latest figures reinforce expectations that the Central Bank of Nigeria may maintain its current monetary policy stance when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets next week.
Analysts said the combination of easing headline and core inflation supports the case for keeping interest rates unchanged, even as rising month-on-month food inflation suggests underlying price pressures have yet to ease sufficiently to justify an early policy reversal.
The inflation report also reflects the continued impact of improved foreign exchange stability and sustained monetary tightening, both of which have contributed to moderating annual inflation after the sharp price increases experienced in 2025.
However, upside risks remain.
Seasonal farming activities, elevated transportation costs, supply chain constraints and fluctuations in food supply are expected to keep pressure on food prices in the near term, potentially slowing the pace of disinflation over the second half of the year.
Market participants will also monitor developments in exchange-rate stability, fiscal policy implementation and global commodity prices for further indications of the inflation outlook.
While analysts expect headline inflation to continue its gradual decline during the second half of 2026, they note that sustained moderation in food prices will be critical before monetary authorities can begin considering lower interest rates.
For now, the latest inflation figures suggest that Nigeria’s disinflation process remains on course, but the persistence of food price pressures indicates that the cost-of-living challenge facing many households has yet to fully ease.
