Nigeria could have experienced inflation of up to 1,000 per cent without the economic reforms introduced by President Bola Tinubu’s administration, including the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of foreign exchange rates, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, has said.
Oyedele made the assertion on Tuesday at the 56th Annual Accountants’ Conference of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN) in Abuja, where he defended the government’s economic policies amid persistent cost-of-living pressures on households and businesses.
“If this reform had not happened, ladies and gentlemen, today, you would be talking about inflation in a thousand per cent,” he said.
The minister attributed Nigeria’s inflationary pressures partly to previous monetary expansion, foreign exchange shortages and the cost of financing petrol subsidies, arguing that the economy was already facing significant structural challenges before the current administration introduced its reforms.
According to Oyedele, approximately N30tn in money creation contributed to the price increases currently affecting consumers, including the rising cost of essential commodities such as bread.
“We printed plenty of naira. Plenty trillion naira was printed. The inflation we are dealing with today, the reason why your bread is more expensive, is the N30tn showing up,” he said.
He explained that the inflationary consequences of monetary expansion could take time to become fully apparent, arguing that the current administration’s policies were aimed at addressing underlying weaknesses in the economy.
However, the minister acknowledged the pressure on household purchasing power, maintaining that the government’s priority was to raise incomes faster than inflation rather than artificially suppress prices.
“We’re putting all our effort towards raising the income of the Nigerian people faster than inflation,” Oyedele said.
He also disclosed that the Federal Government had spent twice the amount saved from petrol subsidy removal on salary adjustments and wage awards, although he did not provide figures to substantiate the claim.
“The federal government spent twice what is saved from subsidy in adjusted salaries,” he said.
On the government’s cash transfer programme, Oyedele said beneficiary identification had improved through the use of the National Identification Number system. He added that the World Bank had acknowledged progress in the government’s efforts to reach vulnerable households.
The minister rejected calls to publish the personal details of cash transfer beneficiaries, arguing that such disclosure could undermine their dignity.
On public financial accountability, Oyedele disclosed that the Federal Government had only recently completed the audit of its 2022 financial statements. He pledged to bring outstanding accounts up to date by the first quarter of 2027 and said subsequent audited accounts would be published within six months of the end of each financial year.
Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu also defended the Federal Government’s economic reforms at the conference, arguing that petrol subsidy removal and foreign exchange market reforms had strengthened public finances despite their adverse effects on households and businesses.
Sanwo-Olu cited official figures showing that Nigeria’s gross domestic product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, while headline inflation declined to 14.63 per cent in September.
He added that the country’s gross external reserves stood at $54.93bn at the end of September, while the non-oil economy expanded by 4.31 per cent.
According to the governor, monthly Federation Account distributions increased from N10tn in 2023 to N21.9tn in 2025, with more than N20tn distributed in the first nine months of 2026.
He also said government revenue collections reached N21.6tn in the first half of 2026, representing a 49 per cent increase from the corresponding period of 2025.
In Lagos State, internally generated revenue reached approximately N1.2tn in the first half of 2026, compared with N816bn for the whole of 2023 and N1.26tn in 2024, Sanwo-Olu said.
While the government has defended the reforms on the grounds of improved fiscal sustainability, higher revenue and foreign exchange market adjustments, their impact on household purchasing power and business operating costs remains a central concern.
Oyedele’s projection that inflation could have reached 1,000 per cent without the reforms represents a counterfactual assessment by the minister rather than an independently established inflation outcome.