Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves have risen to $54.9bn as of September 25, 2026, up 71.6 per cent from $32bn in April 2024, but high debt-servicing costs and weak government revenue continue to put pressure on the country’s public finances.
Fitch revised Nigeria’s credit outlook to positive from stable on October 9, 2026, while affirming the country’s long-term issuer default rating at ‘B’, signalling the possibility of an upgrade if economic and fiscal improvements are sustained.
The reserves rose from $32 billion in mid-April 2024 to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, representing an increase of $22.9 billion, or 71.6 per cent.
The improvement shows a stronger portfolio investment inflows, higher export receipts, remittances and increased formal foreign exchange transactions, alongside greater flexibility in the naira exchange rate.
Despite the stronger external position, Fitch expects general government interest payments to average 27 per cent of revenue between 2026 and 2028, compared with a median of 14 per cent for countries with the same ‘B’ credit rating.
The agency also expects the Federal Government’s interest-to-revenue ratio to remain above 50 per cent, highlighting the pressure debt obligations place on public finances.
Fitch projects Nigeria’s general government debt to average 32 per cent of gross domestic product between 2026 and 2028, below the 56 per cent median for countries in the ‘B’ rating category.
However, the agency expects the fiscal deficit to widen to 3.6 per cent of GDP in 2026 from 3.1 per cent in 2025, partly reflecting higher government expenditure.
On the external account, Fitch projects Nigeria’s current account surplus to reach 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026, supported by stronger export receipts and other foreign exchange inflows.
The agency forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, up from four per cent in 2025, with expansion expected to remain above four per cent in 2027 and 2028, driven largely by non-oil activities.
Inflation is projected to average 15.4 per cent in 2026, although Fitch noted that price pressures remain elevated compared with countries in the same rating category.
The agency expects tax reforms to strengthen non-oil revenue mobilisation, with non-oil revenue projected to reach 7.5 per cent of GDP, equivalent to about 66 per cent of total government revenue.
However, implementation challenges and Nigeria’s historically low revenue base remain concerns for the country’s fiscal outlook.
Fitch identified sustained disinflation, further accumulation of external reserves, stronger non-oil revenue mobilisation and continued implementation of economic reforms as factors that could support further positive rating action.
The positive outlook does not constitute an immediate credit rating upgrade. Nigeria’s rating remains ‘B’, and any future improvement will depend on sustained progress in economic and fiscal conditions.
The development follows other favourable assessments of Nigeria’s credit standing in 2026. S&P Global Ratings upgraded the country’s rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook on Nigeria to positive in August.