The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 400,000 bpd, representing a 71.4 per cent downward revision from its initial projection of 1.4 million bpd.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais disclosed the revised outlook on Monday, October 12, during a ministerial session on global oil and gas market prospects at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The revision reflects weaker-than-anticipated demand growth during the year, with OPEC indicating that some consumption that failed to materialise in 2026 could be deferred to 2027, potentially supporting stronger demand growth next year.
Despite the sharp reduction, Al Ghais emphasised the importance of sustained investment across the petroleum industry amid changing conditions in the global oil market.
The ministerial session also featured Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman; Algeria’s Minister of State for Hydrocarbons, Mohamed Arkab; and Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri.
The revised demand outlook comes eight days after seven OPEC+ countries agreed on October 4 to maintain their November 2026 production targets at a combined 31.01 million bpd.
The decision extended the group’s pause in production increases following four consecutive months of adjustments, as participating producers continued to assess global market conditions.
Saudi Arabia retained its production target at 10.478 million bpd, while Russia’s allocation remained at 9.949 million bpd and Iraq’s at 4.431 million bpd. Kuwait maintained its target at 2.676 million bpd, Kazakhstan at 1.628 million bpd, Algeria at 1.007 million bpd and Oman at 841,000 bpd.
The production decision and the lower demand growth projection highlight the challenge facing oil producers as they balance output decisions against an uncertain outlook for consumption.
Nigeria’s oil production performance has improved in recent months, with crude output returning to its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd after falling short earlier in the year.
Crude production reached 1.53 million bpd in May 2026, exceeding the country’s allocation for the first time that year. Output remained above 1.5 million bpd through July, marking three consecutive months of production at or above the quota.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that combined crude oil and condensate production rose by 0.4 per cent to approximately 1.678 million bpd in August. Crude-only production stood at 1.5 million bpd, meeting Nigeria’s quota for the fourth consecutive month.
The improvement followed gains recorded in 2025, when NNPC Limited reported average crude oil and condensate production of 1.77 million bpd, the country’s highest level in five years.