Nigeria’s oil production losses have dropped sharply from as high as 97% before President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 to 2% as of June 2026, according to businessman and Heirs Holdings Chairman Tony El
According to Elumelu, monthly fiscalisation data showed that 98% of crude oil production was accounted for in June, leaving only 2% unaccounted for.
“Last month, for the month of June, we got 98%. So, 2% loss. It’s significant,” he said while addressing President Tinubu in a video circulating on social media.
The improvement represents a sharp change from the situation Elumelu described in 2022, when he warned that Nigeria was losing more than 95% of some oil production to crude theft.
But while fewer barrels may now be disappearing from the production chain, Nigeria is still not producing enough crude to meet the 1.84 million barrels per day assumption built into its 2026 budget.
The production gap remains
OPEC data showed that Nigeria produced an average of 1.505 million barrels per day in July 2026.
That was 5,000 barrels per day above the country’s OPEC quota of 1.50 million barrels per day, but about 335,000 barrels per day below the production level assumed in the federal budget.
Nigeria’s production had reached 1.55 million barrels per day in June before falling to 1.505 million barrels per day in July.
This means that meeting the OPEC quota does not necessarily translate into meeting the government’s fiscal expectations.
The 2026 budget is built around an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and production of 1.84 million barrels per day, making sustained crude output critical to government revenue and fiscal planning.
Why the 2% figure matters
Nigeria’s oil sector has historically suffered from crude theft, pipeline vandalism, illegal refining and disruptions across production and evacuation infrastructure.
Elumelu had previously highlighted the scale of the problem using the Bonny Terminal as an example. He said in 2022 that a facility expected to receive more than 200,000 barrels of crude daily was receiving fewer than 3,000 barrels.
The latest fiscalisation figure points to a substantial improvement in tracking and accounting for crude production.
However, reducing losses does not automatically increase production.
Nigeria still needs to bring more wells and production capacity online, maintain existing infrastructure and ensure that crude reaches export terminals without being lost or disrupted.
Security operations target illegal refining
Security agencies are continuing to target illegal oil operations in the Niger Delta.
The Nigerian Navy said on Sunday that it dismantled three illegal refining sites in Rivers State and recovered approximately 91,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil during Operation DELTA SENTINEL.
The operation covered the Okolomade and Ogbogolo areas of Rivers State and formed part of efforts to protect oil infrastructure and disrupt crude theft.
For Nigeria, the emerging picture is therefore more complicated than a simple recovery in oil production.
The country appears to be recording a major improvement in how much crude is accounted for, while actual production remains below the level required to fully support the 2026 budget.
The challenge for the government is now to convert improved oil security and accountability into higher, sustained production and stronger fiscal revenues.
