H1 2026 Telecoms Data Exposes New Pressure Point for Operators

Nigeria’s telecommunications networks are carrying data at a pace that is beginning to outstrip subscriber growth, putting fresh pressure on operators to expand capacity even as they continue to add new connections.

Internet traffic rose by 10.5 per cent between December 2025 and June 2026, nearly twice the 6.1 per cent growth in active mobile internet subscriptions over the same period, as existing users consumed more data across the networks.

Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) shows that internet traffic climbed from 1.386 million terabytes in December 2025 to 1.532 million TB in June, an increase of about 145,934 TB in six months. Active mobile internet subscriptions rose from 147.5 million to 156.45 million, adding about 8.9 million subscriptions.

The divergence shows that Nigeria’s connectivity story is becoming less about the number of connections alone and more about the intensity with which those connections are being used.

With more than 20 million potential users still outside meaningful connectivity, operators continue to onboard need new users. At the same time, existing users are consuming increasing amounts of data through smartphones and digital services.

The monthly figures show some volatility without changing the broader direction. Internet traffic fell from 1.386 million TB in January to 1.260 million TB in February, recovered to 1.423 million TB in March and stood at 1.415 million TB in April. It then rose to 1.504 million TB in May before reaching 1.532 million TB in June, its highest level during the period.

Subscriber numbers provide a measure of the size of the connected market, while traffic shows how intensively that market is using the networks.

Since individuals can hold multiple SIMs or subscriptions, the two measures should not be treated as direct equivalents. The widening gap between them nevertheless points to rising data intensity across Nigeria’s connected population.

Operators show how usage is changing

The shift is particularly visible at MTN Nigeria, where network data traffic increased by 25.8 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026. Active data users rose by 9.3 per cent to 55.7 million, while average monthly data consumption per subscriber increased by 15.2 per cent to 14.8GB.

MTN added 4.9 million subscribers during the first half, taking its customer base to 92.2 million. Traffic therefore grew much faster than the customer base, showing that the additional pressure on the network is coming from heavier usage as well as new connections.

The commercial value of that shift is already evident. MTN Nigeria generated N1.70 trillion in data revenue in H1 2026, up 38.3 per cent from N1.229 trillion a year earlier. Data revenue overtook voice revenue of N897.14 billion and accounted for about 56.8 per cent of total H1 revenue.

CEO, MTN Nigeria, Karl Toriola

The changing pattern is closely linked to smartphone adoption. Smartphone penetration on MTN’s network reached 66.4 per cent in H1 2026, with the company pointing to higher smartphone penetration and sustained demand for high-speed connectivity as factors behind rising data demand.

Smartphones also change what customers do on mobile networks. Video streaming, social media, cloud applications, digital financial services, online education and remote work can generate substantially more traffic than traditional voice calls and text messaging. As these services become more common, the amount of capacity required by each active customer rises.

Airtel Nigeria’s results provide another indication that data intensity is rising alongside customer growth. Its total customer base increased by 12.0 per cent year-on-year to 60.1 million in the quarter ended June 2026, while its data customer base grew by 11.0 per cent to 32.5 million.

The more striking movement in the Airtel’s numbers was in consumption with smartphone data usage per customer climbing to 14.9GB a month from 11.8GB a year earlier, an increase of about 26.3 per cent.

Data revenue increased by 38.0 per cent in constant currency, while reported data revenue for the quarter reached $263 million, representing a 59.9 per cent increase in reported currency.

These figures reinforce the observed paradigm shift that while expansion of the customer base remains important, the amount of data consumed by individual users is increasing at a considerably faster pace. That creates a growing requirement for network capacity even when subscriber acquisition slows.

The pattern is less visible at Globacom and T2, largely due to the limited operator-level usage data available publicly. NCC figures show Globacom’s subscriber base increasing from 22.23 million in December 2025 to 23.68 million in June, representing growth of about 6.6 per cent.

T2, formerly known as 9Mobile, recorded a 9.6 per cent increase from 3.23 million subscriptions to 3.54 million during the same period. Its growth came from a considerably smaller base.

Broadband expanding, with mobile still carrying the market

The increase in data consumption is occurring alongside continued expansion in broadband access. Broadband subscriptions reached 123.1 million in June 2026, representing penetration of 56.79 per cent.

That remains below the 70 per cent broadband target previously set for the country, leaving considerable room for further expansion. The composition of broadband access also matters, given the relatively small scale of fixed connectivity compared with mobile.

Fibre-to-the-home connections reached 319,735 in the second quarter, up from 241,750 in the first quarter. Mobile networks nevertheless remain the principal means through which Nigerians access digital services, while fixed fibre is expanding from a much smaller base.

This structure puts additional weight on mobile infrastructure as data consumption rises. Operators need more spectrum, fibre, towers, data centres and other network capacity to support customers who are spending more time online and using increasingly data-intensive services.

Investment request hightens

For operators, rising data demand presents a growing revenue opportunity alongside a continuing capital requirement. Network capacity has to expand as consumption rises if service quality is to remain stable.

MTN Nigeria invested N620.5 billion in capital expenditure excluding leases during H1 2026, following N1.003 trillion of investment in 2025. Chief Financial Officer, Modupe Kadri said the investment expanded network capacity, reduced congestion and improved customer experience through new sites, fibre deployment and data-centre infrastructure.

MTN’s network now includes more than 62,000 base stations and over 43,000 kilometres of fibre. Kadri also noted that additional data consumption requires capacity to be built before the associated revenue can be realised.

Similarly, Airtel Africa Plc plans to allocate a significant portion of its $1.1 billion capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2026 to spectrum acquisition and fibre infrastructure as the telecomsmunications group moves to expand network capacity and meet rising demand for data services in Nigeria, and its other African markets.

Sunil Taldar, chief executive officer of Airtel Africa, disclosed this during an interview, saying the company’s investment strategy is centred on expanding coverage, increasing data capacity and improving customer experience.

The cases of the two leading Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) represents the general direction of the industry to accelerate investments in telecoms infrastructure in order to meet up with rising demands and heavy usage of users while onboarding new subscribers.

Government building for the next stage of demand

The Federal Government’s infrastructure response reflects the scale of the challenge. Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy Minister, Dr. Bosun Tijani said in May that Nigeria’s connectivity problems were linked to years of underinvestment in infrastructure as well as constraints affecting operators’ ability to deliver quality services.

Nigeria’s Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy Minister, Dr. Bosun Tijani

Project BRIDGE is central to the government’s response. The programme is designed to deploy 90,000 kilometres of fibre-optic infrastructure across Nigeria through a public-private partnership model, creating backbone infrastructure to expand broadband access and strengthen digital connectivity.

The government has secured $500 million in World Bank financing and a further $100 million investment from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, alongside a €22 million European Union grant, to support the fibre expansion programme.

Project BRIDGE is expected to connect all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory and reach more than 770 local government areas. Its significance extends beyond connecting communities that remain underserved, as additional fibre capacity will also support the growing traffic generated by users already online.

EVC/CEO of NCC, Dr. Aminu Maida

Similarly, the Executive Vice Chairman and CEO of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Dr. Aminu Maida, has placed telecom infrastructure investment at the center of his regulatory agenda to drive Nigeria’s digital economy.

According to him, his approach focuses on restoring investor confidence, expanding broadband, and safeguarding critical national assets.

The next connectivity test is capacity

Nigeria entered 2026 with about 189.7 million active mobile subscriptions and reached 192.2 million by June, taking teledensity to 88.67 per cent. Active mobile internet subscriptions rose to 156.45 million, while broadband subscriptions reached 123.1 million.

While the numbers show a market that is still expanding, the traffic figures reveal why subscriber growth alone no longer captures the full scale of the telecommunications challenge.

National internet traffic increased by 10.5 per cent between December and June, compared with 6.1 per cent growth in active mobile internet subscriptions.

The changing pattern means Nigeria has two connectivity challenges to address simultaneously. Millions of people still need access to reliable broadband, while the networks serving existing users must accommodate a rapidly increasing appetite for data.

That will influence investment requirements across fibre, spectrum, towers, data centres and network capacity. The country’s digital economy is becoming less defined by how many connections exist and increasingly by how much connectivity each user requires.