The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has credited President Bola Tinubu’s administration with pulling Nigeria’s economy back from the brink of crisis over the past three years, but warned that the benefits of the reforms have yet to translate into meaningful improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.
In an assessment released on Sunday to mark the administration’s third anniversary in office, the private sector advocacy group said the government inherited deep-rooted structural distortions and took politically difficult decisions that previous administrations had repeatedly avoided.
“The administration confronted structural distortions that had accumulated over many years and implemented reforms that previous governments had repeatedly deferred,” the report stated.
According to the CPPE, the Tinubu administration assumed office in 2023 amid a worsening economic crisis marked by dwindling external reserves, a heavily distorted foreign exchange market and an unsustainable fuel subsidy regime.
The group’s Chief Executive Officer, Dr Muda Yusuf, said net external reserves had fallen below $5 billion, while multiple exchange rates and widespread arbitrage had weakened confidence in the economy. At the same time, the fuel subsidy system had become, in the organisation’s words, “a major channel of fiscal leakage, corruption and economic distortion.”
The report argued that the administration’s early decisions to remove fuel subsidies and unify the foreign exchange market have produced significant macroeconomic gains despite the initial shock they created.
Gross external reserves are now approaching $50 billion, while investor confidence has strengthened considerably. The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index has risen from about 55,700 points in 2023 to more than 254,000 points in 2026, representing growth of over 350 per cent. Market capitalisation has also expanded from roughly N30 trillion to more than N160 trillion within the same period.
The CPPE further noted that inflation, which surged in the aftermath of the reforms, declined for eleven consecutive months from early 2025 before renewed geopolitical tensions triggered fresh pressures on prices. It also cited the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery as a major development that has helped reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, conserve foreign exchange and strengthen energy security.
Despite these gains, the organisation said the reforms have imposed significant hardship on households.
“The welfare impact was considerable,” the report stated. “Real incomes declined, poverty conditions worsened and the cost-of-living crisis emerged as one of the most difficult consequences of the reform process.”
Dr Yusuf said the next phase of economic management must focus on ensuring that the benefits of stabilisation are felt by citizens.
“The challenge before the administration is no longer merely one of economic stabilisation; it is the imperative of converting reform gains into jobs, higher incomes, lower poverty and a better quality of life for Nigerians,” he said.
The report also highlighted a number of unresolved structural challenges that continue to weigh on economic growth. Public debt rose to N159.3 trillion by December 2025, driven partly by the securitisation of N23 trillion in legacy Central Bank financing and the impact of naira depreciation on external obligations. According to the CPPE, government revenue growth has yet to fully compensate for the loss of deficit financing through monetary expansion.
Security concerns remain another major threat to economic recovery.
“No economy can achieve food security when farmers face persistent threats to their lives and livelihoods,” the report stated, warning that insecurity in agricultural communities continues to undermine food production, drive inflation and weaken rural incomes.
The organisation was equally critical of conditions in the power sector, describing electricity supply as “one of the most binding constraints on economic growth”. It argued that unreliable power, poor infrastructure, high logistics costs and policy inconsistency continue to erode industrial competitiveness and constrain job creation.
On governance and public accountability, the CPPE cautioned that sustaining support for reforms would require greater transparency and prudent management of public resources.
“As citizens continue to make significant sacrifices in support of economic reforms, expectations for fiscal prudence, transparency and accountability in the management of public resources have risen correspondingly,” the report stated.
“Public trust is the currency that sustains difficult reforms, and that trust is built on fairness, accountability and shared responsibility.”
The organisation’s overall assessment was that while the administration has succeeded in restoring a measure of macroeconomic stability, the ultimate test of the reforms will be their ability to improve living standards.
“Macroeconomic stability may rescue an economy from the brink,” the report concluded, “but inclusive prosperity is what secures public confidence, strengthens social cohesion and sustains the reform journey.”
The CPPE urged the government to focus more aggressively on investment, productivity, food security, employment creation and poverty reduction as it enters the second half of its term.
