Rising component costs could make affordable smartphones increasingly difficult for low-income Nigerians to buy as global manufacturers reduce their focus on devices priced below $200, according to a new report by Counterpoint Research.
Counterpoint said global shipments of smartphones priced below $200 are projected to fall by about 40 per cent between 2025 and 2030, with more than 230 million annual shipments expected to disappear from the segment.
The research firm said the decline would come even as the overall global smartphone market recovers to about 1.20 billion units by 2030, close to its 2025 volume.
For Nigeria, where consumers are highly sensitive to handset prices, the shift could increase pressure on people who depend on entry-level smartphones for internet access, communication, digital payments and other services.
Affordable Smartphones Face Cost Pressure
Counterpoint said higher memory and chipset costs, alongside rising minimum specifications, are making it increasingly difficult for manufacturers to sustain the cheapest smartphones.
Manufacturers are also becoming less willing to maintain products that offer limited commercial returns, the research firm said.
The impact is expected to be most severe in the entry-level segment because component costs account for a larger share of the total cost of producing cheaper smartphones.
Yang Wang, principal analyst at Counterpoint Research, said the recovery in the wider smartphone market would not restore the affordable segment to its previous position.
“The smartphone market will recover in unit terms, but the affordable segment will not return to its previous standing,” Wang said.
According to him, demand will increasingly shift towards better-equipped mainstream devices and premium smartphones, although higher-priced phones will not replace all the volume lost below the $200 threshold.
Nigerians Could Hold Phones For Longer
The contraction in affordable smartphones could have implications for consumers who cannot easily absorb higher handset prices.
As manufacturers move towards more expensive devices, consumers may respond by delaying upgrades and keeping existing phones for longer.
Others could turn to used and refurbished smartphones as a cheaper alternative to buying new devices.
This could be particularly relevant in Nigeria, where smartphones are increasingly important for access to mobile internet, digital financial services, social media, education and work.
Counterpoint said the loss of affordable new smartphones could slow the transition from feature phones and shared devices to personally owned smartphones in lower-income markets.
The research firm also warned that first-time smartphone adoption could slow in markets where handset affordability is already a barrier to mobile internet use.
$200 And Above Segment Set To Grow
While the sub-$200 market is expected to contract, smartphones priced at $200 and above are projected to grow by about 26 per cent between 2025 and 2030.
Counterpoint expects premium smartphone shipments to record an annual growth rate of about 7 per cent during the period.
The research firm said this divergence would result in a smartphone market that is broadly similar in overall size but significantly different in value and competitive structure.
The mid-range segment is expected to become a major battleground as manufacturers concentrate more launches and marketing resources on devices offering higher specifications.
Such phones are expected to increasingly feature more memory and storage, 5G connectivity, improved cameras, longer software support and selected on-device artificial intelligence capabilities.
Affordability Becomes Digital Inclusion Issue
Counterpoint said the decline in affordable smartphones extends beyond the handset industry because device affordability remains a major barrier to mobile internet adoption in low- and middle-income countries.
For Nigeria, higher smartphone prices could therefore have implications for efforts to expand meaningful digital connectivity.
Consumers unable to afford newer devices may postpone upgrades, rely on older phones or purchase second-hand devices, potentially widening the gap between consumers who can access newer technologies and those who cannot.
Counterpoint said addressing the affordability challenge would require measures including device financing, trade-in and circular-device programmes, targeted subsidies and tax reforms.
The firm also called for continued industry efforts to keep entry-level smartphones commercially sustainable.
Smartphone Market To Become More Premium
Counterpoint expects the global smartphone market to experience a stronger recovery from 2028 as component availability improves, retail prices stabilise and consumers make purchases that were postponed during 2026 and 2027.
However, it said the recovery would not mean a return to the previous market structure.
The mid-range segment is expected to capture a larger share of mainstream demand, while premium devices take an increasing share of industry value.
Foldable phones and on-device AI are expected to provide manufacturers with additional opportunities to differentiate products and raise average selling prices.
Counterpoint also expects the wider commercialisation of 6G-capable smartphones towards the end of the decade to support another upgrade cycle.
But the research firm said maintaining an affordable route into smartphone ownership would remain important if advances in mobile networks, artificial intelligence and connected services are to reach a broader share of the global population.